Technical Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS65 KREV 260933
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
233 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A late season storm bringing mountain snow, valley rain,
  thunderstorms, gusty winds, and much cooler weather continues
  through the weekend.

* Occasional travel disruptions in and across the Sierra, as well as
  mountain passes in Mineral and Southern Lyon counties are expected
  to persist through the weekend.

* Warmer and drier weather prevails early next week with chances of
  showers and storms returning by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure continues to reside off the coast of Central CA this
morning and appears to be the main cause of the wintry weather
that is impacting the CWA during the final April weekend of 2025.
Forecast guidance shows this low pressure coming ashore and then
crossing the Sierra in Central CA later today. This low is then
projected to pass over the southern portion of the CWA overnight
before progressing east-northeast and out from the area by Sunday
night. The current radar returns and surface observations this
morning show mountain snow and valley rain showers around the
Tahoe Basin that stretch eastward into western Churchill County.
With the low approaching the CWA today, wintry precipitation
chances are expected to continue this morning before spreading
into more of the region by this afternoon and evening. The
precipitation chances persist through the night and then are
expected to taper off from west to east beginning later Sunday
afternoon/evening before departing the region completely by early
Monday morning. Colder temperatures accompany the wintry weather
this weekend with daytime highs in the western NV valley areas
generally in the 50s while the Sierra Mountain communities see
high temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s range. Chilly
low temperatures are on tap as well for the next two nights with
the Sierra Mountain communities being in the 20s to lower 30s
range. The CWA`s valley area low temperatures look to drop to
between the lower and upper 30s with a few locations being around
the 40 degree mark. Please continue to protect any susceptible
outdoor plants and vegetation you may have with these colder
overnight temperatures.

Forecast guidance shows that snow levels will continue to be around
5-6 kft today and tonight before rising above 6 kft tomorrow
afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory continues for the Tahoe Basin
as well as Mono, Mineral, and Southern Lyon counties through Sunday
evening. Please see weather.gov/rev/winter for more information on
this advisory product as well as the latest area snowfall forecast
amounts. The latest HREF snowfall rates look to be generally under 1
inch per hour at around a half an inch per hour (give or take a few
tenths) across the Sierra region. The exception to this looks to be
near Mt. Rose, the White Mountains, and mountain passes in
Mineral and Southern Lyon counties as they may see around 1 inch
per hour snowfall rates this afternoon. These aforementioned
higher elevation areas will see moderate impacts in the latest
Winter Storm Severity Index while minor winter weather impacts are
anticipated in the remaining portions of the areas in the Winter
Weather Advisory. Please use caution if traveling through these
areas this weekend as roads and surfaces will be slick.

Areas winds this weekend still look to be mostly westerly to
northwesterly with ridge winds gusting up to around 20-25 mph.
Tomorrow still looks to be a tad breezier than today with ridge
gusts up to around 30 mph possible. There is also a 10-20% chance
for thunder to accompany any showers this afternoon across the
region with areas closer to the OR border seeing better chances.
A lesser potential for isolated thunderstorms is also seen with
the wraparound precipitation on Sunday afternoon in western NV.
Gusty winds, ice pellets, lightning strikes, and brief periods of
heavier precipitation look to be potential hazards for any
thunderstorms that occur.

Going through the work week, area temperatures look to take a
warming trend with daytime highs in the 70s returning to western NV
by Tuesday. While mostly dry conditions look to be in the forecast,
afternoon chances for light showers and isolated thunderstorms in
some locations cannot be completely ruled out starting on Tuesday.
Extended forecast guidance shows a potential trough bringing
relatively better precipitation chances starting on Friday with
cooler temperatures over the first weekend of May. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

* A late season winter storm still is expected to spread lower
  elevation rain and higher elevation snow across the region this
  weekend. Most terminals will see periods of rain/snow throughout
  the weekend, with a 10-20% chance for afternoon thunderstorms.
  Widespread terrain obscuration due to lowering ceilings should be
  anticipated.

* While the precipitation type at KRNO/KCXP/KMEV will remain rain,
  snow will persist at KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. The chances for snow
  accumulation at Sierra terminals will depend on time of day and
  rate though it looks like the chances for a few inches of
  slushy accumulation are better through late this afternoon
  compared to tonight and tomorrow.

* Generally, winds will not be a major concern with peak gusts
  from the west/southwest of 20-25 kts each afternoon and lighter
  terrain driven winds overnight. If thunderstorms do develop,
  gusty and erratic winds up to 35 kts are possible. -071/078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion