Technical Forecast Discussion

497
FXUS65 KREV 081900
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
  across the Sierra, western Nevada, and northeast California.
  Activity could possibly continue into the overnight hours.

* Above-normal temperatures in the 80s and 90s will persist
  through midweek, with moderate HeatRisk and mild overnight lows
  due to lingering cloud cover.

* Light winds give way to stronger westerlies midweek, increasing
  the potential for localized elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions with low humidity and poor overnight recoveries.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Storm Chances Today:

* Thunderstorm activity increases this afternoon and evening, with
  a 20-40% chance of storms extending from the Sierra into western
  Nevada and northeast California. A weak area of low pressure
  approaching the West Coast is helping to enhance moisture and
  instability along a lee-side trough stretching from the Sierra
  into west-central Nevada. Storm development will initially focus
  over the higher terrain before drifting into valleys, especially
  across Mineral and southern Lyon counties. Additional activity
  is possible north of US-50 as outflow boundaries spread into
  western Nevada. A well-mixed sub-cloud layer could support gusty
  outflow winds up to 50 mph, with localized blowing dust,
  lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall. Storms may
  linger into the evening and taper off around midnight.

Feels like Summer this Week:

* Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with widespread
  90+ highs in the valleys and 80s in the Sierra through midweek.
  Moderate HeatRisk is expected across much of the lower
  elevations. Overnight lows will remain mild, especially under
  areas of cloud cover, contributing to limited overnight relief
  from the heat.

Increased Fire Weather Concerns:

* Light winds will persist through Monday outside of thunderstorm
  outflows. However, a shift toward stronger westerly winds is
  expected by midweek as dry southwesterly flow sets in. This
  pattern will bring increasing potential for localized elevated-
  to-critical fire weather conditions, particularly across
  western Nevada. Afternoon relative humidity values will fall
  below 15% mid-to-late week, with poor overnight recoveries -
  raising the risk of new fire starts or the reactivation of
  holdover fires. For more information see the Fire Weather
  discussion below.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

* Thunderstorms will be the main hazard today, especially for
  KMMH, KTRK, and KTVL where storm chances range from 20-40%
  during the 20-03Z window. Other terminals in the region may see
  a 10-30% chance. Expect variable gusty winds with gusts
  exceeding 30 kts, mountain obscurations due to CBs and rainfall,
  small hail, and lightning in and near cells. Continued hot
  temperatures through midweek may also cause density altitude
  concerns until a cooldown arrives later in the week. This cool
  down will bring with it increased southwesterly to westerly
  winds, which may generate low-level turbulence Wednesday
  through Friday.

-Johnston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Scattered thunderstorms today and Monday will bring a chance for
  new fire starts due to lightning and gusty outflows, especially
  across the Sierra Front and western Nevada. Outflow boundaries
  may trigger additional storms into the evening, with some storms
  lingering into the early morning hours Monday. Fuels status
  across much of western Nevada and Mono County remain marginal,
  and while most storms will produce wetting rains, isolated
  ignitions and hold overs are possible.

* Temperatures will run 10-15 degrees above average through
  midweek, with highs in the 90s for valleys and 80s in the
  Sierra, along with mild overnight lows. Afternoon relative
  humidity values will fall below 15% across the Basin and Range
  of western Nevada beginning Tuesday.

* By Wednesday, southwest to westerly winds combined with very low
  relative humidity and poor overnight recoveries, will lead to
  localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions into
  Saturday, especially across western Nevada. Any holdover fires
  and new ignitions may spread rapidly under this pattern,
  particularly in wind-prone areas.

-Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion